Berkshire loses $25bn for the qtr. Buffett soothes the pain with words of wisdom.

If you call a dog’s tail a leg, how many legs does it have? Four, because calling a tail a leg doesn’t make it one.

Abraham Lincoln, re-quoted by Warren Buffett

Omaha-based financial conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) reported a staggering loss of $25.1bn for the December 2018 quarter largely due to its 27% holdings in Kraft Heinz (NYSE: KHC), which itself reported a $12.6bn loss in the fourth quarter. Kraft Heinz also wrote down the value of its iconic brands by $15.4bn and disclosed an SEC investigation into its accounting policies, procedures and procurement related internal controls. This news spooked the stock markets which wiped out more than $12bn in the stock’s market cap last Thursday and left its shares trading at its lowest value in the past 4 years. All of this had a cascading effect on Berkshire which had to mark-to-market its losses in KHC as expenses as per new regulatory changes that are part of GAAP. Despite this huge loss for the quarter, Berkshire reported annual profits of $4bn for the entire calendar year of 2018. In his letter that accompanies the annual results, Warren Buffet - chairman of Berkshire - warned shareholders that they should get used to such huge swings in quarterly profits because they own a huge equity portfolio worth $173bn which can fluctuate by up to $2bn in a single day! For the benefit of investors, here are nuggets of wisdom that I could glean from his letter this year.

• Focus on operating earnings (EBITDA) rather than Net Profits. Berkshire goes one step further than EBITDA and includes manager compensation and restructuring expenses (if any) when calculating operating earnings. This conservative approach is in stark contrast to the frequent Wall Street practice of excluding a variety of real costs when computing operating earnings. For the record, Berkshire’s operating earnings soared 71 percent from a year ago.
• Book Value has lost its relevance it once had. Despite the volatility of stock markets, market price provides the best measure of business performance.
• Succession planning at Berkshire has been executed beautifully and is working like a charm.
• Berkshire’s business goal remains unchanged over the years i.e. to buy well-managed businesses that have durable economic attributes at reasonable prices.
• Buffet favors buyback decisions by investee companies. His reasoning is that when earnings of investee companies increase and their shares outstanding decrease (due to buybacks), then the investor’s pie increases without any additional cash outflow to the investor.
• Berkshire is a financial fortress and is sitting on more than $112bn in cash and cash-equivalents. At least $20bn of this cash is untouchable as a safeguard to protect the insurance business from losses resulting from external calamities. The remaining cash is not getting deployed because in the current market, prices are sky-high for businesses that have decent long term prospects. Berkshire has been holding more than $100bn in cash for six straight quarters now!
• Buffet does not focus on quarterly results and neither does the company give out any earnings estimate. His reasoning is that focusing on quarterly numbers encourages bad corporate behavior and induces managers to start ‘fudging’ earnings in order to meet their targets.
• The reduction in US corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% greatly boosted the earnings of Berkshire starting last year. Consequently it also boosted the intrinsic value of Berkshire stock.
• Berkshire’s insurance business is the engine that has been propelling its growth since 1967. It has operated at an underwriting profit for 15 of the last 16 years, except 2017.
• Berkshire uses debt sparingly for financing its operations, except for its asset heavy businesses like railroad and energy. Berkshire does not need to use debt because it has amassed a net worth of $349bn over the years and also leverages the float provided by the insurance business.
• Buffet attributes much of Berkshire’s success to the American tailwind – a reference to the steady growth in the American economy over the past decades. In the future he hopes to invest significant capital across American borders as well.

The subtext

Reading between the lines of Buffet’s letter, here are some points that I noted for myself.

• The world’s greatest investor is not infallible and his investment in Kraft Heinz is proof that even he can make mistakes – big mistakes!
• Buy and Hold as an investment strategy does not work, again as proved by the huge loss reported by Kraft Heinz. It is therefore prudent to always watch for warning signs of trouble and exit a troubled holding before disaster strikes. Could Buffet have seen this one coming? Sure he could, you could too. Take a look at the page for Kraft Heinz from our icTracker database. You will observe that Economic Value Added (EVA) for this stock was continuously negative until March 18 when it went slightly positive for the first time. Thereafter it turned negative once again in June 18 and September 18. That was two quarters of warning and enough time for Buffet to exit his holding in Kraft Heinz during that period.
• Does Buy and Hold strategy encourage emotional bias towards a stock? It possibly does, again as shown by the Kraft Heinz episode. If as an investor you ignore the warning signs of trouble despite obvious indications then you are definitely afflicted by emotional affection towards the stock, which is never a good thing for any long term investor.
• Do tailwinds exist in economies other than the American economy? Sure they do. Buffet himself admits so and is in fact preparing for investing significantly in other emerging economies (such as India IMHO). Berkshire’s recent investment of $300mn in Paytm is proof and is just the beginning. Therefore we can expect more action from him in the future in the sub-continent.
• Despite the extra-ordinarily big loss for the quarter, Berkshire stock price has compounded at an annual rate of 20.5% from 1965 until 2018, in contrast to the S&P500 which has compounded at only 9.7% during the same period. In other words, a dollar invested in the S&P500 in 1965 would have appreciated to $150.19 by the end of 2018. The same dollar invested in Berkshire however, would have appreciated to a whopping $24,726.27 in the same period! In the process, it would have outperformed the S&P500 by a multiple of 164! The question naturally arises - should you invest in Berkshire at this time? Let me put it this way – the $25bn loss is too big even for Berkshire to digest quickly. If you are already invested in Berkshire, then you can ride out the storm along with Buffet. If on the other hand you are planning to make a fresh investment today in the stock markets today, there are many more attractive options available at this time.

Happy Investing!

Why are fund managers unable to outperform the Nifty?

The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.

Warren Buffet

In the past one year we have observed a very strange and perhaps unique phenomenon in the Indian stock markets. Out of the 289 equity mutual funds (regular) which invest in the Indian stock markets and for which performance data for the past one year is available (source: amfiindia.com, annual performance data from 16 Feb 2018 until 15 Feb 2019), only 63 funds managed to outperform their corresponding benchmarks. In other words only 21.8% of such funds could deliver alpha returns when compared to their benchmarks. This data is shown in summary format below:

Fund Category	Outperformers	Total Funds in category	Outperformer Percentage
Smallcap	14	17	82.4%
Midcap	17	25	68.0%
Contra	1	3	33.3%
Sectoral	17	76	22.4%
Multicap	6	35	17.1%
ELSS	4	42	9.5%
LargeMidcap	2	23	8.7%
Largecap	2	33	6.1%
Value	0	12	0.0%
Focused	0	18	0.0%
DivYield	0	5	0.0%
All	63	289	21.8%

Table 1 : Funds outperforming their benchmark, by category

We can see from the above table that except for Smallcap and Midcap funds, all other equity funds failed to beat their corresponding benchmarks in the past one year. Almost 4 of 5 funds underperformed their own benchmarks. How is it possible that so many experienced, skilled and highly paid fund managers failed to read the markets correctly in the past one year? Granted that the stock markets faced spells of high volatility in the past year, but the benchmarks would have been as volatile as the fund itself. Does this mean that most fund managers panicked during times of volatility and experienced a double whammy thereby getting hit on the way down as well as back on the way up?

Dismal as this picture is, it becomes even more depressing when we change the goalpost slightly and compare each fund’s performance against the Nifty, instead of against its own benchmark. Here is how that picture looks like:

Fund Category	Outperformers	Total Funds in category	Outperformer Percentage
Sectoral	9	76	11.8%
Multicap	2	35	5.7%
Midcap	1	25	4.0%
Largecap	1	33	3.0%
Value	0	12	0.0%
Smallcap	0	17	0.0%
LargeMidcap	0	23	0.0%
Focused	0	18	0.0%
ELSS	0	42	0.0%
DivYield	0	5	0.0%
Contra	0	3	0.0%
All	13	289	4.5%

Table 2 : Funds outperforming the Nifty, by category

This table shows that in the past one year only 13 of the total 289 equity funds outperformed the Nifty. And of those thirteeen, 9 were sectoral funds which were primarily oriented towards the Information Technology sector. The question arises at this point, what was the Nifty return in the past one year. It was a meager 3.14% mind you. And yet more than 95% of skilled, qualified, experienced and highly paid fund managers failed to make more than 3.14% from the stock markets in the past one year! What can we attribute such huge underperformance to? Is there some superior intelligence that is more insightful than the collective intellect of more than 95% of the fund managers in this country? On the face of it, that is what it looks like. The other explanation could be that fund managers in general have a herd mentality and panic collectively during times of high volatility. 

Let’s dig deeper and look at the performance of the Nifty components themselves. Here is a summary of their performance in the past one year:

Performance range	Total stocks
-15% and below	19
-15% to 3.14%	12
3.14% to 15%	5
15% to 30%	8
30% and more	6
Total	50

Table 3 : Performance of Nifty components in past one year

As shown in the above table, of the 50 stocks in the Nifty only 19 outperformed the Nifty during the year. In other words less than 2 in 5 of the Nifty stocks outperformed the Nifty during the year. What this implies is that all fund managers had to do was to have a few of these 19 stocks in their folios in order to compete with the Nifty. Yet a vast majority of them (more than 95%) failed to do exactly this. Was it so difficult to identify at least a few of these 19 stocks at the start of the year? Seemingly it was. It shows that nobody is infallible, regardless of what the mutual fund commercials will have you believe day in and day out with their ‘Sahi Hai’ campaign. 

What to Do

If you are a Mutual fund investor you have to realize that fund managers are not as smart as you wish them to be. The data clearly confirms this fact and it is indisputable. This logic can perhaps be extended to portfolio managers who run Portfolio Management (PMS) schemes as well, but I do not have the data to support that argument at the moment. If you are a PMS investor, your own experience in the past one year with the performance of your fund may confirm my point of view. Either way, in such difficult times it is handy and especially useful to have an open line of communication with your investment advisor. Ask incisive questions about the non-performance of specific stocks in your portfolio to your advisor, understand the reasons for the same and then convince yourself about the way forward. Nobody is infallible including your advisor, but at least a direct conversation between you and your advisor will make both of you aware of the situation and then make him/her work out ways to deal with it going forward. Hopefully both of you will emerge as better investors in the process.

The 4 Ps of personal financial planning

Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.

Warren Buffet

Personal financial planning is a very important aspect of every individual’s personal life. Simply put, it is just the process of developing a roadmap for your financial well being – now, tomorrow and well into the future. When it is done well enough, it helps you in achieving your goals and your dreams, but more importantly it helps you navigate life’s ups and downs by overcoming the financial barriers that are an inevitable part of everyone’s life journey. This aspect of personal financial planning is rarely visible in public though. What is starkly visible however - mostly amongst your friends, neighbors and families - are the financial difficulties that arise in their lives due to lack of adequate financial planning and the discipline to stick to the plan in cases where a plan may even exist. These are the people who due to their own laziness or indiscipline or both land themselves in financial quicksand and then cover themselves with debt of all kinds - credit cards, personal loans, business loans, overdrafts and even loans from friends and families - to try and get out of it. If such people are lucky to have the benefit of good financial advice they do come out of their financial distress over a period of time. Else they continue sinking deeper into the financial hole which they have dug for themselves with each passing day.

The irony is that personal financial planning is not a difficult process at all. It is very easy and to make it even simpler to remember and etched into your memory I have codified it into a pyramid named the “The 4 Ps of personal financial planning” as shown below.

Provision: This is the first P of personal financial planning and is at the bottom of the pyramid. It is mostly applicable in your early years when you are young and preparing for a career although it can be applied all throughout your lifetime. It calls for making an investment in yourself i.e. educating yourself with the knowledge and the skills that will enable you to make your mark in society. It is equivalent to planting a seed that will grow into a tree someday. This is the stage in your life when you are in the red, when you have no personal wealth unless you are blessed with an inheritance. Hence the best thing to do at this stage is to build large provisions of knowledge and skills that will enable you get a job and earn an income. As you increase your knowledge and skills and grow in your career your income will grow and after providing for your expenses it will enable you to start building a nest egg, which will be the start of your wealth creation process.

Prevention: The second P of personal financial planning lays emphasis on preventing any illness that may come in the way of your ability to earn regular income. In this phase you invest in your health and hence you need to focus on best health practices – such as a healthy diet and regular exercise – but also supplement it with a good health insurance plan just in case some illness were to afflict you, god forbid. A good health plan not only pays for the cost of your hospital stay but also gives you cash for out of pocket expenses when you are ill. Most importantly it ensures that for a small fixed amount every year, your growing nest egg is prevented from being dented by a significantly large medical bill. 

Protection: The third P of personal financial planning is applicable when you have got married and started planning for a family. At this phase in your life you find that you have dependents, whose financial well being depends on you. This creates an additional financial obligation on you but most people do not realize it and those that do are inevitably late. Financial wizards have created a solution for this problem too and it is called life insurance. In this phase you invest in your peace of mind which ensures that for a small amount every year your life remains protected and that in the event of your untimely demise your dependents can continue to enjoy the financial well being that you had planned for them. Life Insurance products are often sold bundled together with investment plans in the name of endowment policies, ULIPs, etc. It is a best practice to always separate insurance from investments so that each product can work for you for the specific purpose for which it is designed. 

Profusion: The final P of personal financial planning is the one that focuses on multiplying your nest egg. In this stage you invest for your future. The future is not only uncertain but it is paved with ups and downs. The future also holds the key to your goals, your aspirations and your dreams. Realizing this fact early on in life will compel you to plan for the future by investing your nest egg in such a way such that your goals may be achieved without undue stress on your finances. There are multiple investment products available for multiplying your nest egg, ranging from fixed income products such as fixed deposits and bonds to equity products such as stocks, futures and options. Mutual funds are a convenient way of investing in these products since they not only reduce the ticket size abut also provide useful combinations of these products bundled together in a single fund. 

What to Do

If you have incorporated one or more of the above elements into your personal financial plan, you are already ahead of your peers. If not, it is better late than never that you start as soon as possible. Assess where you stand today and then if you need help, engage the services of a Registered Investment Adviser (RIA) to help you navigate the complex world of investments and select the ones that are best suited for realizing your financial goals. Your Investment Adviser will understand your financial goals, assess your risk profile, calculate the optimal asset allocation mix for your needs and then create a financial plan for you that is aligned with your needs. A regular review of this plan with your adviser will ensure that you stay on top of the financial markets and in control of your own financial dreams!

Happy Investing.

The interim budget’s impact on the stock markets

I could end the deficit in 5 minutes. You just pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election.

Warren Buffet

The interim finance minister – Hon. Shri Piyush Goyal – presented the interim budget last Friday. Technically, the interim budget is supposed to be a stop gap budget, meant only for the express purpose of financing government expenses until the next elected government takes over. However, since it is the last budget before the general elections, historically governments have resorted to announcing populist schemes in the interim budget in order to woo the masses. And indeed, this has become the norm over the years. Hence holding true to this tradition, the finance minister doled out tons of largesse to the masses in the interim budget. Farmers with less than 5 acres of land will now get a cash benefit transfer of Rs 6000 per year directly into their bank accounts. This will benefit 12 cr farmers and cost the exchequer Rs 75,000 cr/per annum.  Allocation for MGNREGA which benefits landless farmers and laborers has been increased to 60,000cr. A mega pension scheme has been announced for the worker class who earn less than 15000 per month. The government will provide a matching contribution up to Rs 100 per month to provide them assured monthly pension of Rs 3000 per month when they retire. This will benefit 10 cr workers in the unorganized sector. Standard deduction has been raised 25% from 40,000 to 50,000. The tax-free income limit has been doubled from 2.5 lakhs to 5 lakhs. This will provide benefit of Rs 18,500 crore to about 3 crore middle class taxpayers.

So the question naturally arises – what does this interim budget do to the economy? Simply put it will put more money in the hands of the masses, increasing their spending power. It will stimulate rural growth, stoke inflationary expectations and put upward pressure on interest rates and downward pressure on GDP growth. The finance minster has already admitted that financing these schemes will increase the fiscal deficit from 3.1% to 3.4% of GDP. But analysts believe the deficit could be much higher. Financing this deficit will force the government to borrow from the bond markets which in turn will result in hike in interest rates. A small trailer of this was already witnessed when the 10 year bond yields jumped up about 1.7% immediately after the announcement of the budget!

What to hope for

As investors, the best thing to hope for is that the next incoming government comes in with an absolute majority. A hung parliament will be the worst case scenario at this time in India’s history, because then coalition compulsions will creep into decision making. In the worst case this will lead to proliferation of corrupt practices and in the best case the nation will be saddled with policy paralysis. Either way, it will be a setback for India from assuming its rightful stage at the world table. A stable majority government on the other hand will have the political support and the will to continue the path of fiscal consolidation for stimulating economic growth and the overall well being and prosperity of the nation and its citizens.

What to Do

As investors, it is futile to speculate which sectors of the economy and specifically which businesses within those sectors will do well due to the stimulus provided by the interim budget. Such top down approaches to stock picking are susceptible to errors of judgment that can go horribly wrong. A recent case in point was the big bet on the infrastructure sector five years ago by many fund managers and research analysts due to heavy spends earmarked for roadways, railways and waterways by the present government. However infrastructure stocks hardly benefitted from these spends and many of them continue to languish even till date. As investors, it is best to leave the market forces of demand and supply determine the winners and losers.
The best approach for investors is to always invest in businesses which fulfill the following three criteria:

1. Has a track record of making more money than its cost of capital 
2. Has a sustainable competitive advantage in the market place. 
3. Is available at reasonable valuations. 

The icTracker database is the only publicly available database that constantly scans stocks for these three criteria and the icAdvisor service is designed to guide investors to benefit from the findings of this constantly changing database.