Nifty drops below 11000 again. Should I exit now?

The benchmark Nifty ended the week at 10,829 bouncing back from a 6 month low of 10,637 in the final trading session of the week. The sudden uptrend in the Nifty started after about 1 pm on Friday afternoon, which probably means that the market had got wind of the impending policy announcements by the Finance Minister later in the day. And right on cue, these announcements came after the close of the markets. The Finance Minister Ms Nirmala Sitharaman sought to assuage investor sentiment by rolling back the surcharge on Foreign Portfolio Investors on the one hand while increasing liquidity with a capital infusion of Rs 70,000cr into the banking system on the other. Other announcements included cheaper home and vehicle loans, better transmission of RBI policy rates and quicker GST credit for MSMEs etc. These announcements were timed to address the wide discontent with the performance of the overall Indian economy and the stock markets are expected to cheer these decisions when they reopen on Monday.

So the Government is clearly worried about the economy and is taking short term measures to stem the tide. But experts believe this is not enough – much more needs to be done at a structural level to stem the tide. Notable among these include increasing income for farmers in the agricultural sector, job creation in the manufacturing sector and NPA resolution in the services sector. Truth be told - the NDA Government has addressed these issues in its first term – it just needs to continue addressing them more into its second term. Ultimately the annual GDP growth rate which has slowed to a 5 year low of 5.8% for the last quarter of 2018-19 needs to be reversed back to 8.5% plus and more in order to achieve the Government’s own target of a $5trillion economy by 2024. Is this target realistic? Let’s look at the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the top 10 economies of the world.

Country	2018 actual GDP ($tn)	2018 actual rank	2024 projected GDP ($tn)	2024 proj. rank	GDP proj. growth rate
United States	20,494,050	1	25,728,734	1	3.30%
China	13,407,398	2	21,309,503	2	6.84%
Japan	4,971,929	3	6,848,808	3	4.68%
Germany	4,000,386	4	4,912,299	4	2.98%
United Kingdom	2,828,644	5	3,399,017	6	2.66%
France	2,775,252	6	3,354,126	7	2.74%
India	2,716,746	7	4,729,319	5	8.24%
Italy	2,072,201	8	2,323,028	9	1.65%
Brazil	1,868,184	9	2,468,216	8	4.06%
Canada	1,711,387	10	2,242,038	10	3.93%

Despite the recent slowing down of the global economy, the IMF forecasts that the top 10 economies will continue to grow for the next 5 years with India growing the fastest among the bunch. This will result in India climbing up two steps in the ladder while Brazil will climb up one. The IMFs forecast of $4.7tn for India is close to the Indian Government’s own $5tn target, implying that it is indeed realistic but a stretch target. In order to get there at least one of the three growth drivers – consumption, investments and exports – will have to lead the charge. If two or more drivers fire together we will hit the bull’s eye with ease.

What to Do?

Steep market corrections instill fear and a sense of impending gloom and doom amongst investors. At such times, it is perhaps best to take a step back, look at the bigger picture and try to answer some basic questions. 

• Is India’s fundamental growth story still intact? Largely yes. 
• Is the Government doing all it can to stem the tide?  It has made an earnest beginning. 
• Will the Government do all it can to get back on the growth trajectory? It has no choice if it has to achieve its own $5tn target. 

Add all these answers together and it should be pretty obvious what you need to do as long-term investors in the Indian markets. If you still have questions or doubts, reach out to your SEBI Registered Investment Adviser who will be able hand-hold you through this patch of turbulence in the Indian economy. 

Happy Investing.

Nifty drops below 11000, what to do now?

Thank God, July has ended. We have just gone through the worst July in the Indian stocks markets in the past 17 years! This chart (courtesy Mint) conveys the extent of the carnage on Dalal Street in July.

The selling in the month of July was led primarily by Foreign Institutional Investors who were spooked by the budget proposal to increase the Income tax surcharge for the super rich. This was compounded by sluggish earnings for the June quarter suggesting a serious slowdown in the Indian economy. Notwithstanding the Indian Government’s target to achieve $5tn economy by 2024 there were very few investors who were willing to bet on the Indian stock markets in July. The simmering NBFC crisis and accusations of tax terrorism only worsened the situation. In short, we have moved from a situation of joy and ecstasy in May 2019 after the Modi victory to that of gloom and doom in July – in just two short months.

As an observer of the stock markets I have noticed a more disturbing trend in the past 12 to 18 months – specifically, the Nifty is no longer giving a true picture of the performance of the broader market. In other words, the broader market is significantly underperforming the Nifty over the past 12 to 18 months. In order to confirm this hunch I used the icTracker database and computed the returns of each stock over the past 12 months (including dividends, bonus, etc). I then grouped the returns in bands of 10% ranges and counted the numbers of stocks in each range. I did this for two sets – the Nifty and for all the stocks in the database. I then calculated the count as a percentage of the overall stocks in each set and plotted the results as line charts as shown in the chart below.

Here are my observations of this chart

• The line chart for the ‘Nifty’ is significantly shifted to the right of the line chart for ‘All’ stocks. This shift gives a visual picture of how much the Nifty stocks have outperformed the broader market
• I have put colored areas in the graph to make my point more clearly
• Green – Non Nifty Stocks that have outperformed the Nifty
• Yellow – Nifty stocks that have outperformed the broader market
• Red – Non Nifty stocks that have significantly underperformed the Nifty
• We can see that the size of the green area is significantly less than the combined Yellow and Red areas. This shows how much the Nifty has become disconnected with the broader market in the past 12 months alone.
• Consequent to my study above, I can safely conclude that in the past 12 months investors would find greater underperformance of their stock and Mutual Fund portfolios when compared to the Nifty as a benchmark

What to Do?
Steep market corrections instill a sense of fear no doubt, but also create an opportunity for investing more at lower levels. The right thing to do in such difficult times is to stick to the process – which in simple words means continue to invest as per your own risk profile. While doing this do keep in mind that the Nifty is no longer an indicator of the broader market. In any case the chart above shows that nearly 60% of the Nifty stocks gave negative returns in the past one year. Talk to your investment adviser so that he/she can choose fundamentally good stocks for your portfolio, whether from the Nifty or from outside the Nifty. If you can invest more at this time, you should. If not, just sit tight.